How close are the robots? They’re coming, but how far away are they? In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne did the analysis for the US. The aptly named WILL ROBOTS TAKE MY JOB? site has made this analysis available alongside other data. The data set is very broad from shoe and leather workers (robots are watching) to personal care aides (robots are watching) to model makers, metal and plastic (doomed) to software developers, systems software (no worries).
Each of the roles and the analysis undertaken is debatable and a 2017 perspective almost certainly changes many of them, but it’s still a fun exercise to think through the impact of the robots on the many roles that people undertake.
The answer for Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs is that your job has an 89% probability of automation and that the robots are watching.
I picked on Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs because it’s been an interesting week for car technology.
Yandex which is Russia’s equivalent of Google and Uber has joined the race to create an autonomous vehicle with a project named Yandex.Taxi aiming for Level 5 autonomy (the highest level of autonomy defined by the SAE) also known as Full Automation.
They already have a demo available:
Cadillac are testing technology that is further integrating vehicles into the infrastructure in which they operate with vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication. This technology is also being developed to allow cars to talk to each other. In it’s latest announcement Cadilac are demonstrating how a vehicle would talk to traffic lights to enable a driver to know when the lights are going to change. At one level I think that this is a great idea, at another I can see all sorts of challenges. For me the greatest challenge is nearly always the humans, we have a wonderful ability to outsource our responsibilities to the technology, the smarter the technology becomes the lower our feeling of responsibility will become “Sorry officer, I ran the red light because my car failed to stop.”
The robots are definitely watching.
But how far can the robots go? When will their intelligence overtake human intelligence? When will we reach singularity and what will its impact be? That’s the question posed by a colleague Annu Singh:
now’s the time to think about and prepare for this tomorrow, before the limits of human intelligence startle us like a soft whisper.
Yandex.Taxi Unveils Self-Driving Car Project via Yandex
The driverless car incorporates Yandex’s own technologies some of which, such as mapping, real-time navigation, computer vision and object recognition, have been functioning in a range of the company’s services for years. The self-driving vehicle’s ability to ‘make decisions’ in complex environments, such as busy city traffic, is ensured by Yandex’s proprietary computing algorithms, artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Cadillac tested out the V2I system by rigging two traffic signals near the GM Warren Technical Center campus to send data to its demo CTS vehicles. The automaker said the stop lights were able to use Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) protocol — which is the same system used for inter-car V2V communication — to send data to the cars about when the light would turn red.
Singularity in AI: Are we there yet? via DXC Blogs
While we may not be at the point of singularity yet, the growing capability of AI to make decisions, learn and correct its own decision-making process does seem to raise moral, ethical, social and security concerns. Consider the dilemmas being confronted now around self-driving cars. Insurance companies are questioning who owns the liability and risks, who carries the insurance policy. Developers are faced with unimaginable decisions about whose life gets saved in a deadly collision.