Gartner Predictions for 2008: A Lot of Green

It’s a thing that Gartner does every year – predict.

I’ve not done an assessment of how accurate their predictions tend to be. In some senses the accuracy of the predictions isn’t the issue, it’s that fact that people listen to their predictions. This produces a mind-share effect that probably makes some element of the prediction come true even if the detail is off.

This years predictions have loads in them about green issues, more than anything else I think:

By 2009, more than one third of IT organizations will have one or more environmental criteria in their top six buying criteria for IT-related goods. Initially, the motivation will come from the wish to contain costs. Enterprise data centres are struggling to keep pace with the increasing power requirements of their infrastructures. And there is substantial potential to improve the environmental footprint, throughout the life cycle, of all IT products and services without any significant trade-offs in price or performance. In future, IT organisations will shift their focus from the power efficiency of products to asking service providers about their measures to improve energy efficiency.

By 2010, 75 per cent of organisations will use full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteria. Most technology providers have little or no knowledge of the full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint of their products. Some technology providers have started the process of life cycle assessments, or at least were asking key suppliers about carbon and energy use in 2007 and will continue in 2008. Most others using such information to differentiate their products will start in 2009 and by 2010 enterprises will be able to start using the information as a basis for purchasing decisions. Most others will stat some level of more detailed life cycle assessment in 2008.

By 2011, suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials via an audited process to retain preferred supplier status. Those organizations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of green sourcing policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental regulations. For example, Timberland has launched a “Green Index” environmental rating for its shoes and boots. Home Depot is working on evaluation and audit criteria for assessing supplier submissions for its new EcoOptions product line.

We already recommend server equipment based on its power consumption, this has more to do with powering the data centre than any green credentials, but its a trend I see continuing.

It’s certainly true to say that “Most technology providers have little or no knowledge of the full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint of their products.” I’ve tried to find out on a couple of occasions and failed miserably.

(Spot Jimmy and Grandad in the huge lens)