If Apple had a monopoly?

This is a question I ponder sometimes. If we had chosen to buy Apple instead of IBM PC what would the world of IT look like today. For one thing we wouldn’t be dominated by Microsoft, would Microsoft still exist, etc.

I’m no great historian so this isn’t some great thesis, it’s just some simple pondering.

Apple has always been the deliverer of an an integrated solution – hardware and software. Get one, get them both. If Apple had dominated would this have continued? Would they have reached a monopoly in the same way as Microsoft is reported to have? Would they have fallen into the hands of the regulators earlier or later? Would the regulator have made them split the hardware and software sides of the business?

If all of the personal computers and their software came from one organisation what would have happened? We certainly wouldn’t have had Dell or Gateway; IBM, Toshiba, HP, Sony, would all be smaller.

Would Apple have chosen to leverage the dominance in the personal computer space to increase the scope of their monopoly into say the office productivity or media space?

Without the cash from Windows would Microsoft have been the ones shouting foul over the encroachment of Apple into it’s office productivity market? Would they have developed Exchange and would it be something completely different? SQL Server? SharePoint?

I like to ponder history because it tells me something about the future.

If Apple is dominant in the portable media player market will it try to use that dominance to build a dominance somewhere else. Well they already are, they are trying to build a dominance in music downloads. They aren’t building this dominance in an open accessible way they are locking people in. If you buy protected music from iTunes the only portable media player you can play it on is your iPod. Businesses aren’t really that different you see. If you use an iPod and you buy music from iTunes you’ve been locked in (well almost because you can get the tunes to another format but it isn’t easy and it will cost you money).

If the dominance continues and moves towards a monopoly will the regulators move in? Will they be told to open up their software to others (in the same way as Microsoft has)? Will they be forced to license the iPod specification to allow others into the market? Will they be forced to bundle other digital rights software from people like Microsoft and Sony? Will they see it coming and let others into the market once they have defined its shape and size? Will the global copyright structure fall apart before that happens, making all music free and removing the need for digital rights management?

It’s fun pondering – but remember, it doesn’t mean anything.

Or perhaps it does .